IT seems coalitions among opposition parties have become the in thing.
Some work, others flounder before the elections, while some just fail to take off.
Kenya, Senegal, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Nigeria and The Gambia, all have tales to tell when it comes to making coalitions work.
In Zimbabwe, the belief by opposition parties that only by facing ZANU PF as a united front would improve their chances, coupled by the push from their donors and sponsors, has seen opposition politicians attempting to cobble together a marriage of convenience.
For a while, reports of imminent consummation of the coalition have been making rounds. Unfortunately, the materialisation of this coalition is taking far too long as leaders haggle, try to outwit and outmaneuver each other, much to the dismay of their supporters.
The opposition coalition has more going against it, and in this piece I will look at some of these factors that will cause the coalition to suffer a stillbirth.
The history of politics in Zimbabwe denotes that much of the political discourse is shaped around personalities.
The culture of personalities in politics will contribute to the opposition coalition not having a strong grounding.
Theirs is a coalition against President Mugabe, so you will find that outside of this ‘Mugabe must go’ rhetoric, they have no common agenda.
There are those who say what is taking shape in Zimbabwe is not really a coalition, instead what we have is the fruition of Morgan Tsvangirai’s ‘Big Tent’.
It can be recalled that some years back, retired Anglican Bishop Sebastian Bakare came up with the idea of a National Convergence Platform, which would have brought together all opposition stakeholders.
Much to Bakare’s dismay, Tsvangirai sought to hijack that project.
It is an open secret that Tsvangirai sees himself as the ‘only’ opposition politician worthy to take over from President Mugabe and any attempt by other stakeholders to proffer mechanisms to tackle ZANU PF are a threat which is quickly neutralised by the MDC-T.
The smaller opposition parties came together under the Coalition of Democrats, and what did Tsvangirai do? He established National Electoral Reform Agenda (NERA).
When he saw that the social protest movement were taking the limelight, the MDC-T youth assembly also jumped onto the bandwagon with the #MyZimbabwe.
Tsvangirai’s leadership flaws are well documented and have been the source of the MDC-T splitting several times over the years.
His tendency to play big dog is an impediment to a united coalition, as his dictatorial approach will more often than not cause friction that would diminish the coalition’s focus on key matters.
It would come as no surprise that a significant portion of the coalition’s business would be addressing matters arising from tensions caused by Tsvangirai’s flawed leadership.
His big brother mentality will turn the coalition into a primarily MDC-T affair.
Still on the coalition’s leadership, the jostling for the limited positions is likely to cause disharmony in individual political parties.
In the MDC-T, the friction between deputy presidents Nelson Chamisa and Thokozani Khupe can be cut with a knife — it’s very palpable .
Add Joice Mujuru on to the scene and the contest for Tsvangirai’s deputy in the coalition becomes a powder keg for Khupe.
Joice Mujuru’s venture into opposition politics has also been revealing.
Several key figures that were expelled from ZANU PF for supporting her succession bid have dumped her along the way.
The Zimbabwe People First spilt and her emergence under the auspices of the National People’s Party indicates that all is not well in her group.
With the exception of the 2016 Gweru rally, Tsvangirai and Mujuru have failed to make significant joint public appearances that would convince their supporters that theirs is a strong union.
Coalitions are all about perception and building confidence in the targeted constituencies, and right now mistrust is rife; coupled with the continued fear of ‘infiltration’ by ZANU PF ‘agents’, the slow progress in assuring supporters that indeed a coalition will be on the ballot paper in 2018 means that supporters are left guessing whether they are going right or left.
In the end, the coalition leaders will have limited time to sell the coalition to their supporters.
The situation is helped by constant stories in the media indicating tussles between opposition leaders.
Dividing the cake is going to prove a challenge for the coalition. The MDC-T is rumoured to have said that sitting legislators are not to be contested at primary elections.
This means it intends to contest in those constituencies in 2018, but it does not cater for the prodigal sons and daughters who jumped ship during the ‘leadership renewal episode’.
How will the Matabeleland constituencies be divided between ZAPU, MDC-T and NPP?
Mthwakazi says it will be fielding candidates in Matabeleland; will this not split the opposition vote?
Constituencies could also determine how much resources are allocated to each candidate or party.
At this juncture, the importance of sponsors and donors cannot be over-emphasised.
Donor fatigue post-2013 elections has negatively affected opposition politics — Tsvangirai had to survive on the mercy of well-wishers as coffers ran dry.
Donors have always been the major driving force of civil society and opposition politics in Zimbabwe.
With indications that some Western donors have been warming up to Mujuru, the question then becomes, what mechanisms have been put in place to channel funds to the opposition?
Civil society has been up in arms with the MDC-T ever since the leadership renewal debacle.
Protest movements are of the impression the MDC-T is sidelining them instead of complementing their efforts.
So who will donors fund, why and by how much?
Money has always been a contentious issue, even within families. This hybrid family which has some characters with a long history of being caught with their hands in the cookie jar is likely to be shaken by financial scandals.
Lastly, the coalition might suffer the same fate as the MDC.
As previously stated, outside of the ‘Mugabe must go’ mantra, most of the parties concerned are self-centred and would use the coalition for self serving purposes, making the initiative ground zero for endless clashes and friction.
Failure to articulate concrete policies will also weigh down the successes of the coalition. One of the major questions for every Zimbabwe is: After you remove President Mugabe what next?
People cannot be taken for a ride the second time by claims of friends with money, because we all know President Donald Trump is not wasting US tax dollars on poor Zimbabwe; the British have their own challenges, and being further indebted to the IMF and World Bank are not viable options.