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Trump vs Clinton: What could go wrong?

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THE path is now clear for controversial billionaire, Donald Trump, as main rival Ted Cruz, bows out of the race for presidential nomination.
Trump has gone from long-shot contender to the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee for president with a crushing win in Indiana that forced his main rival Cruz out of the race.
Addressing jubilant supporters at Trump Tower in New York after romping to his seventh straight state-wide victory, the real estate mogul promised them: “We’re going to win in November and we’re going to win big, and it’s going to be America first.”
Trump’s immediate challenge is to unite deep fissures within the Republican Party as many party loyalists are appalled at his bullying style, his treatment of women and his signature proposals to build a wall on the border with Mexico and deport 11 million illegal immigrants.
Republican national committee chairman Reince Priebus called Trump the party’s presumptive nominee in a tweet and said: “We all need to unite and focus on defeating Clinton.”
Clinton on Tuesday suffered an upset in Indiana as her rival Bernie Sanders mounted a come-from-behind victory, denying the former Secretary of State a feather in her cap as she seeks their party’s presidential nomination.
Sanders, a self-declared socialist, beat Clinton by 53,2 percent to 46,8 percent with about three quarters of precincts reporting — although Clinton remained well ahead in the overall delegate battle for the nomination.
The Republican Party is facing a crisis in November.
Trump is surely a problem for Republicans, both in the short and long term, but the party’s issues go well beyond Trump.
A recent poll was conducted by the Associated Industries of Florida, a prominent business group in the state and they found that Clinton would defeat Trump by a 49 percent to 36 percent margin if the election were held today.
Clinton is deeply unpopular, but there’s no good reason to suppose that Trump can win in traditionally blue states, not with such dismal support among women (with whom he has a 66 percent unfavourable rating) and minority voters. 
In February, the Hummel/Rothschild fundamental model gave the Democratic candidate a 48 percent probability of winning and now gives the Democratic candidate a 53 percent probability of winning, because of President Barack Obama’s surging presidential approval numbers.
But whether it’s 48 percent or 53 percent, that would be a relatively tight election.
According to Predict Wise, a website that aggregates data from multiple prediction and betting markets, the eventual Democratic nominee has a 74 percent probability of winning the general election.
At this time in 2012, President Obama had about 60 percent; in 2008, the as-yet-undetermined Democratic candidate (the Democratic nominee had not yet been decided) had about 60 percent.
In both cases, they were correct.
In the swing states that matter most in the presidential race, Trump does not have a prayer against Clinton in the general election.
That’s according to top operatives, strategists and activists in 10 battleground states who participated in this week’s POLITICO Caucus.
Nearly 90 percent of them said Clinton would defeat Trump in their home states in a November matchup.
Republicans are only slightly more bullish on Trump’s prospects than Democrats: More than three-quarters of GOP insiders expect Clinton to beat the Republican front-runner in a general-election contest in their respective states.
Among Democrats, the belief is nearly universal: 99 percent of surveyed voters said Clinton will beat Trump.
In three of the biggest swing states, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.
However, should Trump win, here is what we should expect:
Immigration
Throughout his campaign, Trump has taken a hard-line stance on immigration reform, calling for a freeze on green cards and a temporary ban on Muslims entering the US.
At the centre of his campaign is his vow to build a multibillion dollar wall on the US – Mexico border funded by the Mexican government.
According to him, he will force Mexico to pay for the wall by threatening to either increase fees or cancel all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats.
He also threatens to increase fees on all border crossing cards, NAFTA worker visas from Mexico and ports of entry to the US from Mexico.
Stopping ISIS
In November, Trump threatened to ‘bomb the sh*t out of ISIS’ and take over the terror group’s oil wells in order to deprive the organisation of income.
Meanwhile, Trump said he would leave the job of fighting ISIS to the Syrian government and expressed support for Russia to help the Syrian regime. Instead of accepting Syrian refugees, he proposed to help fund a safe zone for civilians inside Syria.
Climate Change
Trump has declared that climate change is a hoax.
Back in 2012, he tweeted that Chinese officials are responsible for creating the concept of climate change in order to suppress the US economy.
It is safe to assume that he plans to take absolutely no action to reverse the effects of climate change or stop carbon emissions and greenhouses gases from polluting the ozone layer.
Instead, he said he would cut the Environmental Protection Agency and give states the right to regulate pollution.

1 COMMENT

  1. Your article is really on point and other than really focusing on Trump as a mere presidential candidate, he poises a real danger to international relations. His stance on Mexicans really exposes how much of a bully he is and how dictatorial he is. If he has the ability to say such consequential statements in public before being vote into office, what more if he is in power?. Its a shame that some American citizens are too blind to note that Donald Trump is really not fit for Presidency. As for his stance on Global Warming, well that’s just arrogance at its highest level and to imagine that his personal stance on this issue will be publicized and enacted into law, its tantamount to global sabotage.

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