Possible Excessive Rains

Zimbabwe is likely to experience tropical cyclones in the forthcoming rainfall season, which will result in floods, violent storms and damage to homesteads due to La Nina weather patterns, Environment Minister Mangaliso Ndlovu has said.

Said Minister Ndlovu:

“Each country has its own unique climate drivers. 

However, weather knows no boundaries. Although Zimbabwe is land-locked, it is not surprising that the response to changes in the Pacific Ocean, where the La Nina and El Nino originate from, there is already talk of a La Nina.

A La Nina is often associated with wet conditions over Southern Africa, but the impacts of each La Nina on global climate are never the same. 

They depend on the intensity of the event, the time of the year when it develops.”

The Minister further said:

“In Zimbabwe, a La Nina does not necessarily mean heavy rains as shown over the years. In line with the expectations of good rains in every season, there is equally a downside to this. 

Severe weather events such as flooding, violent thunderstorms, hail, lightning and even intra-season dry spells should be expected this season.”

The Minister further said, “This calls for multi-stakeholder participation in the use of the rainfall outlook as a weapon to mitigate the vagaries of extreme weather and climate events. 

To this end the Government through the MSD (Metrological Service Department) will shortly begin the process towards the establishment of the National Framework of Climate services under the guidelines of the global framework for climate services.”

In Zimbabwe, the El Nino phenomenon often leads to prolonged dry spells and drought conditions with negative effects on livelihoods. 

El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the pacific coast of South America.

On the other hand, the La Nina process is characterised by abnormal cool sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, thereby affecting global climate in the opposite way to El Nino.

La Ninas are normally associated with wet conditions for Zimbabwe and the entire Southern Africa but a local weather expert cautioned that they sometimes do not result in widespread rain. 

The weather department confirmed the La Nina  patterns in seasonal forecast services. 

“The climate scientist took into  count oceanic and atmosphere factors that influence our climate over SADC region.”

The regions which are anticipating normal to above normal rains from October 2020 to March 2021 like Region 1 in Zimbabwe are likely to experience challenges of floods.

These are areas like Mashonaland East, Mashonaland Central, Midlands and parts of Manicaland.

Region 2 will first experience normal to below normal rains but  normal to above normal from January to March 2021.

Region 3 will have normal to above normal rains from January to March 2021.

La Nina weather patterns normally result in more rainfall as compared to its opposite- El Nino.

It is crucial for the general members of the populace to be on the guard this 2020-2021 rainy season as people who once experienced natural disasters elsewhere.

Possible Locusts Infestation

There is fear that swarms of locusts might breed during the rainy season, causing problems in the 2020-2021 cropping season.

Zimbabwe must continue to take anticipatory measures and preparatory steps to fight swarms of locusts in case of fresh outbreaks.

Plant disease experts argue that these locusts form groups with billions of locusts and even huge flying swarms that can destroy crops ravenously over hundreds of hectares .

Locusts destroy crops and livestock pasture.

Sources reveal that they are capable of eating as much as what 2 500 people can eat in a single day.

According to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), there is a threat of locusts in the upcoming rain season.

There have been locusts located in Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Zambia this year.

The locusts that were seen breeding in large numbers and raiding the Gonarezhou National Park in Chiredzi and Manicaland this 2020 are said to be indigenous locust populations breeding in large numbers and building up into swarms.

They are called African Migratory Locusts.

Reports say that “the pest threatens Botswana breadbasket region of Pandamatenga, where the country’s sorghum is grown” and control measures need to be put in place this season.

“Outbreaks of African Migratory Locust (AML) are threatening the food security and  livelihoods of millions of people in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Around seven million people in the four affected countries, who are still recovering from the impact of the 2019 drought, and grappling with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, could experience further food and nutrition insecurity.

FAO is working with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Red Locust Control Organisation for Central and Southern Africa (IRLCOCSA) to support the  governments of the affected countries to control the locusts.”

Elsewhere in East Africa, there is a plague of locusts spreading across the region threatening food supply systems and livelihoods.

FAO argue that AML outbreaks in southern Africa are separate to the Desert Locust emergency in Eastern Africa.

Conclusion

It is always good to be on guard regarding changes.

Remember the Cyclone Idai that hit Zimbabwe during the 2018-2019 rainfall season.

Records reveal that 804 people died and over 50 000 households were displaced. The country has not completely recovered from the effects of the  Cyclone Idai.

Floods, easy outbreaks of water diseases and also deaths are on the negative side of anticipated rains.

Also, recall  the locusts that exploded in East Africa and the Red Sea region in late 2019, exacerbated by abnormal weather patterns amplified by climate change. 

Swams of insects flew west from Yemen, and this year reached Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.

It is crucial to pay heed to all the information that will be disseminated regarding seasonal outbreaks this 2020-2021 cropping season to ensure anticipated good harvests.