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Economic forecast for 2017

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2017, the year that comes before what has been correctly dubbed a ‘crucial’ election by the opposition because they will once again be trounced by ZANU PF, is a year, to borrow from the ever-sprouting prosperity gospel churches, of ‘turnaround’.
With Government having set the tone for the much-needed economic turnaround through various interventions like Statutory Instrument 64 (SI64), Command Agriculture, the Chirundu-Beitbridge Highway construction deal and introduction of Bond notes, among many other developments last year, 2017 is the year for reviving the economy.
Indeed the prospects are looking brighter for Government as we march towards 2018.
It is a year in which processes for the finalisation of the country’s economic turnaround blueprint, the Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (Zim-ASSET) will be completed.
With the Chinese and Russian mega deals in mind and at various stages of implementation, there is only one way we are headed as a nation – success and greatness .
The political side remains very much under the control of the ruling ZANU PF Party.
While there remain few challenges which can, however, be dealt with internally by the ruling Party, these are minor issues that have been largely blown out of proportion by the ever excitable so-called independent media.
Despite this, there is little to worry or scare ZANU PF from the frighteningly fractured opposition.
Below we look at some of the critical issues that are likely to dominate in Zimbabwe this 2017:
The economy
During his 2017 National Budget presentation late last year, Finance and Economic Development Minister Patrick Chinamasa made several interventions that will spur economic development this year.
Growth is projected at 1,7 percent from 0,6 percent estimated in 2016.
The growth will be driven by agriculture and mining which are expected to record sector growth of 12 percent and 0,9 percent respectively in 2017.
But perhaps the most interesting news is that SI 64 has begun to bear fruit with capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector rising by 13,1 percentage points to 47,4 percent as of December last year.
This is according to a Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) Manufacturing Sector Survey for 2016 report published late last year.
Capacity utilisation was at 34,3 percent in 2015.
“The gains of Statutory Instrument 64 (SI 64) of 2016 are beginning to be realised (as) capacity utilisation has jumped significantly by 13,1 percentage points from 34,3 percent in 2015 to 47,4 percent in 2016,” reads the CZI report in part.
Equally interesting is the sealing of the US$984 million dualisation of the Chirundu-Beitbridge Highway deal last year.
Geiger International, an Austrian firm, will construct under a 25-year Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) model.
The project, expected to take up to three years to complete, will commence in March this year.
The Beitbridge-Harare-Chirundu Highway is Zimbabwe’s busiest and is the gateway to neighbouring countries such as South Africa, Zambia and Malawi.
Under the agreement, at least 40 percent of the value of the project will be sub-contracted to Zimbabwean companies.
Agriculture
Talk-of-the-town has been Command Agriculture, also known as Targeted Command Agriculture, a programme widely seen as a realistic opportunity of achieving national food self-sufficiency and regaining Zimbabwe’s status as the breadbasket of southern Africa. 
The new scheme was initially targeted at providing inputs and related inputs to at least 2 000 farmers near water bodies who can put a minimum of 200 hectares under maize crop per person. But as of early last week, about 479 000 hectares had been put under maize crop.
The programme will go a step higher this year with soya beans and wheat becoming latest entrants into the scheme during the winter cropping season.
To complement the food self-sufficiency thrust, Government has also introduced the National Livestock Strategy aimed at resuming beef exports to the European Union, the Middle-East and other markets.
Addressing delegates at the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) 2016 congress in Victoria Falls, Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is supervising the Command Agriculture initiative, said reviving all areas related to agriculture is key to national development.
“As we implement the National Livestock Strategy, we remain alive to the need to guard against disease outbreaks like foot and mouth disease,” said VP Mnangagwa.
“Cognisant of the erratic rains in the semi-arid parts of the country, like Matabeleland South, and its effect on pastures, some 2 000 hectares are being cleared for irrigated grass at ARDA-Ngwizi, enough to feed 60 000 animals per annum.”
In tobacco, 92 000 hectares have been planted this season compared to 87 775 last year.
Let the good times roll!
Politics
The most comical issue coming out is the feverish push by the private media for what they constantly refer to as the ‘mooted’ coalition between Morgan Tsvangirai’s deeply divided MDC-T and Dr Joice Mujuru’s stuttering ZimPF.
Whether this mooted coalition will be born is neither here nor there.
What’s critical is what these two will bring to the electorate. They will bring nothing but the usual intimidation and rigging noise.
Meanwhile, ZANU PF continues to march towards yet another ticket to State House, but the fissures within the ruling party must be dealt with while comrades must close ranks and work for the good of the Party.
As the year begins in earnest, ZANU PF particularly knows what is at stake and we will, without doubt, witness the economy improving.
Let those with ears listen.

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