THE events in Mozambique should not be analysed as a random occurrence in Southern Africa.
I believe Southern Africa is under threat and not from local forces, but there is a greater hidden hand at play.
While political cases have a tendency to be not only analysed, but solved in isolation there are certain factors that as Southern Africans we should take into consideration and which are bound to tie Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries together in order to achieve not only economic growth, but provide sufficient social and infrastructural development.
Economists have noted that Mozambique is growing at more than seven percent, putting it among the fastest growing economies in Africa.
Mozambique just like Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Tanzania among other States in the region offers many opportunities to many Western corporations to move in and exploit this market be it in search of raw material or as consumers for their goods.
Mozambique’s coal mining industry is one of its chief economic drivers.
The country’s coast has also emerged as a new energy hub following the discovery of large natural gas reserves offshore.
Mozambique is experiencing rapid urbanisation with statistics indicating that around seven million people live in Mozambique’s urban centres.
Coming back to Mozambique’s coal, already plans are underway to improve the railway system to make transportation of coal easier, faster and cheaper.
The railway line project will cost billions and in the long run also rake in billions.
Malawi will benefit from this new railway line as part of it will run for 200 km within that country.
Recently the Mozambican government signed two new deals for coal exploration and mining in the Tete Province with mining giant Rio Tinto and an outfit domiciled in Mauritius, Midwest Africa.
Rio Tinto’s concession covers 9 707 hectares, the government will have a five percent free share on the project, while another five percent would be available on the Mozambique Stock Exchange for Mozambican citizens.
For the first three years of the project, Rio Tinto says it will invest US$5 million in social projects in the local communities affected by the mine development.
Spanish enterprise, Gas Natural has also registered interest in entering Mozambique’s energy sector.
Uganda has indicated it is very much interested in importing Mozambique’s coal given the confirmation of huge iron ore deposits in Muko.
Interestingly, Uganda is also looking to reconstruct and improve its railway systems and has pronounced that it will be using locally manufactured steel products and will be demanding an increase in the use of local steel products in the construction sector.
The Wall Street Journal’s European edition indicated that international mining and energy companies are now wary of going into Mozambique.
Corporations that have invested billions of dollars in Mozambique’s energy sector including ltaly’s Eni SpA, America’s Anadarko Corp, South Africa’s Sasol and Brazil’s Vale stand to lose should tensions between RENAMO and President Gebueza’s Government escalate.
Zimbabwe is in a rather precarious position.
The threat of conflict poses a danger not only to those living along the Mozambican border, but also to Zimbabwe’s economic recovery. How will the mining activities at the Chiadzwa diamond fields be affected?
The European Union (EU) just lifted the illegal sanctions placed on Zimbabwe’s diamonds at the urging of Belgium which was losing out to diamond traders in India and Dubai.
I would not put it past the same criminal elements that were at the heart of the chaos in Chiadzwa to use the conflict in Mozambique to return to Marange in a bid to resume illegal mining activity.
It is evident from the attacks in Mozambique by RENAMO that the rebels are not as well resourced as they used to.
One does not need to be a rocket scientist to understand the lure that Zimbabwe’s diamonds might have on these rebels.
It is not as though they would be reinventing the wheel, diamonds have been used before to fund wars.
If this happens the Government would be forced to shift its focus from pushing for economic development and look towards protecting its territory and natural resources.
It would be in Zimbabwe’s best interests to call for dialogue between RENAMO and President Guebuza.
The country cannot afford another war; the region cannot afford another war.
However, in all this let it not be forgotten that, revolutionary parties in the region are not at the heart of Westerners.
If members of the ANC remain on America’s terrorist watch despite that they fought apartheid in South Africa, if Cuba remains under sanctions imposed during the Cold War, as Africans we should remember that in the game of politics there are no permanent friends but permanent interests.
Because of the support and the doctrine revolutionary parties subscribed to with socialist leanings it cannot be assumed that by coming into power those forces in the West that have long fought against any ideology and economic system that removes from capitalism have stopped the war.
Am I saying that America is sympathetic to RENAMO and could possibly fund it?
No, I am not, however it could never be ruled out.
America has a long history of using rag tag groups to destabilise legitimate governments and when one looks at Southern Africa a fight here, a rebellion there, some tension here would go a long way to achieve the removal of revolutionary parties from power and replace them with more amenable parties that understand their role in Government as facilitators of environments suitable for Western corporations to operate in.