THERE are several points to consider from Professor Stephen Chan’s recent statements that MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s time as ‘a meaningful political force’ is over and ZANU PF will win the 2018 general election.
But chief among them, is that the pressures on the West to normalise relations with Zimbabwe are becoming intense.
Complementing the list of the pointers has been Zimbabwe’s rebound as an economic force to reckon with following the signing of mega economic deals with China and Russia in the past few weeks sending jitters in Western capitals.
On the other hand, it emerged this week that Britain, the perpetrator-in-chief of the anti-Zimbabwe crusade was under pressure to state its position on the economic sanctions against Harare ahead of a scheduled scrapping of the embargo by the European Union (EU) next month.
With this in mind, it is no longer possible for the West to maintain the unity they had on Zimbabwe for the last decade because with the recent signing of the Chinese and Russian mega deals, Zimbabwe has become too important to leave to the East.
But most important of them all is Chan’s role in this shift in opinion on Zimbabwe.
Chan, professor of international relations at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, is a notable British foreign policy advisor on Africa.
He, together with Richard Dowden form part of a group of think-tanks which almost sealed Zimbabwe’s fate at the turn of the millennium.
Dowden chaired the meeting on January 24 1999 at Chatham House in London, which came up with the four strategies to remove President Mugabe and ZANU PF from power.
The EU had in December 1998 resolved that President Mugabe must be removed from power.
Interestingly, Chatham House invited the Government which was represented by Foreign Affairs Deputy Minister, Ambassador Christopher Mutsvangwa to London a fortnight ago.
The invitation to Chatham House must be understood in the context of efforts by Britain to stamp its authority once again on the Zimbabwe economy.
In his presentation, Ambassador Mutsvangwa told London that its politics of confrontation had lost relevance at a time investors have been flocking to Harare.
On September 2 2013, Dowden attended a two hour session that took place at Chatham House.
Chan addressed the meeting.
Last week Chan gave his damning assessment of Tsvangirai and opposition politics in Zimbabwe in an interview published by World Politics Review.
“However, the nature of the 2013 electoral defeat – not only because of registration roll irregularities, but also because of a spectacularly inept MDC campaign led by Tsvangirai – was the nail in the coffin,” said Prof Chan.
“President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU PF party might have wished for a split, but it did not have to work to engineer one.
“The opposition underwent a process of self-destruction.”
Interestingly, a point which is slowly proving that Britain has abandoned its futile pursuit of the regime change agenda in Zimbabwe is Chan’s consistency on the need for the United Kingdom and the West to re-engage Harare.
In August last year, Chan predicted that the West would have engaged Zimbabwe by Christmas.
He said the MDC would become even less effective and it “will be disastrous for many civic action groups because a lot of foreign money will also now seep out of the Zimbabwe democracy effort.”
Without funding, the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) face a bleak future.
This point was buttressed by former EU Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Aldo Dell’Ariccia, on June 17 when he gave a crucial speech, which confirmed Chan and the Chatham House’s thinking on Zimbabwe.
Dell’ Ariccia took aim at the civil society, itself a key arm of the opposition octopus, saying he had, “the impression that you are a little bit anchored to the past.”
Chan’s assessment in August last year was that ZANU PF “can posture as the reasonable government that the West must deal with, because there is no one else and because the West has no choice in the matter.”
More importantly, Chan observed that both the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) had decided ‘to take Zimbabwe into the future with the rest of Africa’.
He went on to demonstrate the West’s dilemma by noting, “with Egypt and Syria on its plate, un-reconciled fears over Iran, real concerns over North Korea, and fractiousness in its relations with Russia, the West will be working out ways to re-engage with Zimbabwe by Christmas.”
In May, Chatham House published a report that called on the West to re- engage Harare minus the opposition as a matter of urgency.
The Chatham House report was premised on the fact that following President Mugabe’s thumping of Tsvangirai’s MDC-T, Zimbabwe was moving towards restoring and recovering an economy battered by years of isolation of Harare.
They were right.
The coming in of China and Russia was confirmation of their assessment that the project to isolate had failed dismally.
The West, noted Chatham House’s report, would be left out on the vast investment opportunities in Zimbabwe, particularly from China which has shown key and solid interest in Harare.
In July, Chan stressed that President Mugabe’s ascension to the chair of SADC was recognition of his role in African history.
“My view is that both SADC and AU which signalled these appointments some time ago, wish to recognise Mugabe’s role in African history,” said Prof Chan.
There was an interesting observation from Chan in his World Politics Review interview-the ZANU PF perspective.
Despite all the alleged infighting characterising the ruling party, Chan said there was no possibility of the party sinking into oblivion like the MDC.
“It is rumoured that the December 2014 ZANU PF party congress will inaugurate a succession process,” said Prof Chan.
“The two major candidates to succeed Mugabe are Vice President Joice Mujuru and long-time Cabinet Minister Emerson Mnangagwa, but there is constant rumour-mongering in Zimbabwe, so it is uncertain whether there will really be a succession process or simply more rumours.”
With British microscopes like Chan increasingly fixing their lenses on Zimbabwe, it is becoming clear that its renaissance is on an unstoppable path to the apex.